Published: Feb 14, 2022 by Allyson
Nenana Ice Classic
About
The Nenana Ice Classic is an annual contest held since 1906 to guess when the ice in the Tanana River will break up, down to the minute (AKST), in Nenana, Alaska1. Originally restricted to Nenana residents, then opened to residents of Alaska and the Yukon, COVID-19 opened betting up remotely.
Data Sets
The break up times have been recorded with the National Snow and Ice Data Center2.
Regional weather data will be challenging, as records past 1980 are sparse, and Alaska didn’t become a US state until 1959. I will need to use some data manipulation techniques to approximate historical data that may be missing.
Challenge
I aim to use regional climate data to predict when the ice in the Tenana River will break up in Nenana, Alaska.
I’m not the only one to attempt to solve this, as Tommy Lee Waters has won at least three times3 by drilling holes in the ice to measure the thickness and working the math out by hand. He also spent $5,000 on guesses. (That’s 2,000 guesses!)
I will submit no more than 10 guesses, totalling a maximum of a $25 investment.
How to Participate
Tickets can be purchased through the Nenana Ice Classic Office Nov 1st through April 5th and can be purchased from February 1st thru April 5th of each year throughout Alaska at various locations4. Tickets are $2.50 USD each.
To participate outside of Alaska, you can mail your list of guesses along with $2.50 USD per guess to the Nenana Ice Classic office. They do not accept credit cards for persons living outside of Alaska, so you will have to pay with money order, cashiers check or personal check. If you participate via mail, your guesses must be postmarked on or before April 5th.
